Policy scorecard

Argentina under Milei

Each metric: recent 12 months vs. the 12 months Milei inherited (Dec 2022 – Nov 2023).

Data as of Aug 2026

Inflation

Better

1.7%

Monthly CPI change · data as of Aug 2026

0%10%20%30%2020202120222023202420252026FernándezMilei
Inherited 8.3% avg Dec 2022 – Nov 2023
Last 12 mo 2.4% avg Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Peak 25.5% Dec 2023
Source INDEC ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 5.0%
  • Year-on-year CPI change 33.5%
    0%200%400%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Aug 2026 inherited 118.2% → last 12 mo 32.5% INDEC ↗
What else moved it
  • 2022 world food and energy price surge after Russia invaded Ukraine.
  • 2023 drought cut farm exports, reducing the dollars that support the peso.
Method
Series
Monthly % change of the national CPI (INDEC, Dec 2016 = 100), as published to 1 decimal.
Verdict
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 vs. Dec 2022 – Nov 2023 · Lower is better · Flat if the change is within ±0.5 pp
Source
INDEC
Updates
INDEC, mid-month (~day 10-14) for the previous month; next 2026-10-13 (Sep 2026)
Data
PeriodValueSource
Aug 20261.7%release ↗
Jul 20262.1%dataset ↗
Jun 20261.9%dataset ↗
May 20262.1%dataset ↗
Apr 20262.6%dataset ↗
Mar 20263.4%dataset ↗
Feb 20262.9%dataset ↗
Jan 20262.9%dataset ↗
Dec 20252.8%dataset ↗
Nov 20252.5%dataset ↗
Oct 20252.3%dataset ↗
Sep 20252.1%dataset ↗
Aug 20251.9%release ↗
Jul 20251.9%dataset ↗
Jun 20251.6%dataset ↗
May 20251.5%dataset ↗
Apr 20252.8%dataset ↗
Mar 20253.7%dataset ↗
Feb 20252.4%dataset ↗
Jan 20252.2%dataset ↗
Dec 20242.7%dataset ↗
Nov 20242.4%dataset ↗
Oct 20242.7%dataset ↗
Sep 20243.5%dataset ↗
Aug 20244.2%dataset ↗
Jul 20244.0%dataset ↗
Jun 20244.6%dataset ↗
May 20244.2%dataset ↗
Apr 20248.8%dataset ↗
Mar 202411.0%dataset ↗
Feb 202413.2%dataset ↗
Jan 202420.6%dataset ↗
Dec 202325.5%release ↗
Nov 202312.8%dataset ↗
Oct 20238.3%dataset ↗
Sep 202312.7%dataset ↗
Aug 202312.4%dataset ↗
Jul 20236.3%dataset ↗
Jun 20236.0%dataset ↗
May 20237.8%dataset ↗
Apr 20238.4%dataset ↗
Mar 20237.7%dataset ↗
Feb 20236.6%dataset ↗
Jan 20236.0%dataset ↗
Dec 20225.1%dataset ↗
Nov 20224.9%dataset ↗
Oct 20226.3%dataset ↗
Sep 20226.2%dataset ↗
Aug 20227.0%dataset ↗
Jul 20227.4%dataset ↗
Jun 20225.3%dataset ↗
May 20225.1%dataset ↗
Apr 20226.0%dataset ↗
Mar 20226.7%dataset ↗
Feb 20224.7%dataset ↗
Jan 20223.9%dataset ↗
Dec 20213.8%dataset ↗
Nov 20212.5%dataset ↗
Oct 20213.5%dataset ↗
Sep 20213.5%dataset ↗
Aug 20212.5%dataset ↗
Jul 20213.0%dataset ↗
Jun 20213.2%dataset ↗
May 20213.3%dataset ↗
Apr 20214.1%dataset ↗
Mar 20214.8%dataset ↗
Feb 20213.6%dataset ↗
Jan 20214.0%dataset ↗
Dec 20204.0%dataset ↗
Nov 20203.2%dataset ↗
Oct 20203.8%dataset ↗
Sep 20202.8%dataset ↗
Aug 20202.7%dataset ↗
Jul 20201.9%dataset ↗
Jun 20202.2%dataset ↗
May 20201.5%dataset ↗
Apr 20201.5%dataset ↗
Mar 20203.3%dataset ↗
Feb 20202.0%dataset ↗
Jan 20202.3%dataset ↗
Dec 20193.7%release ↗

Fiscal balance

Better

−0.02% of GDP

Overall (financial) balance, rolling 4 quarters · data as of Q2 2026

−10.0%−7.5%−5.0%−2.5%0.0%2.5%2020202120222023202420252026FernándezMilei
Inherited −4.11% of GDP avg Q4 2022 – Q3 2023
Last 4 qtrs 0.18% of GDP avg Q3 2025 – Q2 2026
Peak 0.37% of GDP Q3 2025
Source Hacienda + INDEC ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) −4.97% of GDP
  • Primary balance, rolling 4 quarters 1.16% of GDP
    −10%−5%0%5%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Q2 2026 inherited −2.21% of GDP → last 4 qtrs 1.38% of GDP Hacienda + INDEC ↗
What else moved it
  • 2020 deficit widened with COVID-19 lockdown, emergency transfers and lost revenue.
  • 2023 drought cut export-duty revenue ~0.7% of GDP vs budget (Jan–Oct).
  • 2023 includes one-off 5G spectrum auction revenue (Aug 2023).
Method
Series
National Public Sector cash overall balance, last 4 quarters summed ÷ nominal GDP of the same 4 quarters (INDEC).
Verdict
Q3 2025 – Q2 2026 vs. Q4 2022 – Q3 2023 · Higher is better · Flat if the change is within ±0.50 pp
Source
Hacienda + INDEC
Updates
Hacienda: monthly SPN cash result ~mid-following month; INDEC nominal GDP ~11 weeks after quarter end (Q3 2026: 16 Dec 2026)
Data
PeriodValueSource
Q2 2026−0.02% of GDPrelease ↗
Q1 20260.21% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 20250.17% of GDPdataset ↗
Q3 20250.37% of GDPdataset ↗
Q2 20250.31% of GDPdataset ↗
Q1 20250.29% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 20240.30% of GDPdataset ↗
Q3 2024−0.24% of GDPdataset ↗
Q2 2024−0.72% of GDPdataset ↗
Q1 2024−2.16% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 2023−4.34% of GDPdataset ↗
Q3 2023−4.17% of GDPdataset ↗
Q2 2023−4.27% of GDPdataset ↗
Q1 2023−4.18% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 2022−3.81% of GDPdataset ↗
Q3 2022−3.96% of GDPdataset ↗
Q2 2022−3.98% of GDPdataset ↗
Q1 2022−3.72% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 2021−3.60% of GDPdataset ↗
Q3 2021−2.93% of GDPdataset ↗
Q2 2021−4.53% of GDPdataset ↗
Q1 2021−7.14% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 2020−8.43% of GDPdataset ↗
Q3 2020−8.24% of GDPdataset ↗
Q2 2020−7.13% of GDPdataset ↗
Q1 2020−4.39% of GDPdataset ↗
Q4 2019−3.80% of GDPdataset ↗

Economic activity

Better

102.2

Economic activity (EMAE, seasonally adjusted) · data as of Jul 2026

7080901001102020202120222023202420252026FernándezMilei
Inherited 101.4 avg Dec 2022 – Nov 2023
Last 12 mo 105.0 avg Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Peak 107.1 Mar 2026
Source INDEC ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 97.2
  • Real GDP, year-on-year change 2.0%
    −20%0%20%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Q2 2026 inherited −0.8% → last 4 qtrs 2.5% INDEC ↗
What else moved it
  • 2020 COVID lockdown: activity collapsed in Q2 2020, then rebounded.
  • Drought: farm output fell 20.2% in 2023 (INDEC first estimate), lowering 2024's base.
Method
Series
INDEC EMAE, seasonally adjusted (2004 = 100), rebased to Nov 2023 = 100; latest vintage.
Verdict
Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 vs. Dec 2022 – Nov 2023 · Higher is better · Flat if the change is within ±1.0 pts
Source
INDEC
Updates
INDEC: EMAE ~7-8 weeks after month end (next 2026-10-21, Aug 2026); GDP quarterly in Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec
Data
PeriodValueSource
Jul 2026102.2release ↗
Jun 2026105.3dataset ↗
May 2026105.0dataset ↗
Apr 2026105.6dataset ↗
Mar 2026107.1dataset ↗
Feb 2026104.2dataset ↗
Jan 2026106.6dataset ↗
Dec 2025106.6dataset ↗
Nov 2025104.5dataset ↗
Oct 2025104.7dataset ↗
Sep 2025104.7dataset ↗
Aug 2025104.2dataset ↗
Jul 2025103.5dataset ↗
Jun 2025103.1dataset ↗
May 2025104.2dataset ↗
Apr 2025104.2dataset ↗
Mar 2025102.1dataset ↗
Feb 2025104.8dataset ↗
Jan 2025103.5dataset ↗
Dec 2024103.5dataset ↗
Nov 2024103.1dataset ↗
Oct 2024101.9dataset ↗
Sep 2024101.0dataset ↗
Aug 2024101.1dataset ↗
Jul 2024100.6dataset ↗
Jun 202497.9dataset ↗
May 202497.8dataset ↗
Apr 202496.4dataset ↗
Mar 202497.2dataset ↗
Feb 202498.3dataset ↗
Jan 202497.7dataset ↗
Dec 202397.7dataset ↗
Nov 2023100.0dataset ↗
Oct 2023101.0dataset ↗
Sep 2023102.3dataset ↗
Aug 2023102.5dataset ↗
Jul 2023101.6dataset ↗
Jun 202399.7dataset ↗
May 202399.5dataset ↗
Apr 2023100.8dataset ↗
Mar 2023103.2dataset ↗
Feb 2023102.6dataset ↗
Jan 2023102.2dataset ↗
Dec 2022101.5dataset ↗
Nov 2022101.2dataset ↗
Oct 2022101.8dataset ↗
Sep 2022103.0dataset ↗
Aug 2022103.6dataset ↗
Jul 2022104.3dataset ↗
Jun 2022105.4dataset ↗
May 2022103.9dataset ↗
Apr 2022104.1dataset ↗
Mar 2022102.8dataset ↗
Feb 2022103.1dataset ↗
Jan 2022101.3dataset ↗
Dec 2021102.4dataset ↗
Nov 202199.3dataset ↗
Oct 202197.9dataset ↗
Sep 202198.5dataset ↗
Aug 202197.8dataset ↗
Jul 202196.7dataset ↗
Jun 202196.6dataset ↗
May 202194.9dataset ↗
Apr 202195.3dataset ↗
Mar 202196.2dataset ↗
Feb 202194.6dataset ↗
Jan 202195.5dataset ↗
Dec 202093.6dataset ↗
Nov 202092.0dataset ↗
Oct 202091.2dataset ↗
Sep 202089.2dataset ↗
Aug 202088.0dataset ↗
Jul 202086.3dataset ↗
Jun 202084.8dataset ↗
May 202080.2dataset ↗
Apr 202072.5dataset ↗
Mar 202086.0dataset ↗
Feb 202095.4dataset ↗
Jan 202096.3dataset ↗
Dec 201995.6dataset ↗

Poverty

Better

32.3%

Persons below the poverty line · data as of H1 2026

20%30%40%50%60%2020202120222023202420252026FernándezMilei
Inherited 41.7% H2 2023
Latest half 32.3% H1 2026
Peak 52.9% H1 2024
Source INDEC (EPH) ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 39.5%
  • Persons below the indigence line 7.5%
    0%10%20%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of H1 2026 inherited 11.9% → latest half 7.5% INDEC (EPH) ↗
What else moved it
  • 2020 COVID lockdown hit jobs and incomes in both 2020 half-years.
  • Survey estimate: H1 2026 poverty 90% confidence interval is 30.8-33.7%.
  • H2 2019 excludes Gran Resistencia; H2 2020 excludes Ushuaia-Río Grande.
Method
Series
Share of persons below the poverty line, 31 urban agglomerates (INDEC EPH), per half-year.
Verdict
H1 2026 vs. H2 2023 · Lower is better · Flat if the change is within ±2.0 pp
Source
INDEC (EPH)
Updates
INDEC (EPH), late March for H2 and late September for H1; next 2027-03-31 (H2 2026)
Data
PeriodValueSource
H1 202632.3%release ↗
H2 202528.2%release ↗
H1 202531.6%release ↗
H2 202438.1%release ↗
H1 202452.9%release ↗
H2 202341.7%release ↗
H1 202340.1%release ↗
H2 202239.2%release ↗
H1 202236.5%release ↗
H2 202137.3%release ↗
H1 202140.6%release ↗
H2 202042.0%release ↗
H1 202040.9%release ↗
H2 201935.5%release ↗

Exchange rate

Better

3.3%

Gap, blue vs official · data as of Aug 2026

0%50%100%150%200%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26FernándezMilei
Inherited 111.7% avg Dec 2022 – Nov 2023
Last 12 mo 2.2% avg Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Peak 176.1% Oct 2023
Source BCRA + ArgentinaDatos ↗ unofficial
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 87.5%
  • Gap, MEP vs official 2.1%
    0%100%200%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Aug 2026 inherited 98.5% → last 12 mo 2.7% BCRA + ArgentinaDatos ↗ unofficial
  • Real multilateral exchange rate (ITCRM) 102.8
    50100150200’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Aug 2026 inherited 113.4 → last 12 mo 108.5 BCRA ↗
What else moved it
  • Oct 2020 gap peak came during the COVID-19 recession.
  • Oct–Nov 2023 gap peak came around the presidential election.
  • Higher ITCRM means a cheaper peso in real terms; direction not judged.
Method
Series
Monthly average of daily gaps: blue sell rate (ArgentinaDatos) ÷ BCRA A3500 wholesale rate − 1, in %.
Verdict
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 vs. Dec 2022 – Nov 2023 · Lower is better · Flat if the change is within ±10.0 pp
Source
BCRA + ArgentinaDatos (unofficial, via ArgentinaDatos (blue dollar sell quote; official rate from BCRA))
Updates
Daily on Argentine business days (BCRA A3500, ArgentinaDatos quotes, BCRA ITCRM file); a month is complete after its last business day
Data
PeriodValueSource
Aug 20263.3%release ↗
Jul 20263.4%dataset ↗
Jun 20261.6%dataset ↗
May 20261.6%dataset ↗
Apr 20262.0%dataset ↗
Mar 20261.8%dataset ↗
Feb 20262.0%dataset ↗
Jan 20263.6%dataset ↗
Dec 20251.9%dataset ↗
Nov 20250.7%dataset ↗
Oct 20252.8%dataset ↗
Sep 20251.6%dataset ↗
Aug 20250.7%dataset ↗
Jul 20252.3%dataset ↗
Jun 20251.0%dataset ↗
May 20252.1%dataset ↗
Apr 202513.6%dataset ↗
Mar 202517.9%dataset ↗
Feb 202515.6%dataset ↗
Jan 202517.6%dataset ↗
Dec 202410.7%dataset ↗
Nov 202413.5%dataset ↗
Oct 202423.1%dataset ↗
Sep 202431.5%dataset ↗
Aug 202443.7%dataset ↗
Jul 202455.0%dataset ↗
Jun 202443.4%dataset ↗
May 202428.1%dataset ↗
Apr 202417.3%dataset ↗
Mar 202419.7%dataset ↗
Feb 202433.3%dataset ↗
Jan 202441.3%dataset ↗
Dec 202377.1%dataset ↗
Nov 2023170.4%dataset ↗
Oct 2023176.1%dataset ↗
Sep 2023111.4%dataset ↗
Aug 2023109.0%dataset ↗
Jul 202394.7%dataset ↗
Jun 202397.1%dataset ↗
May 2023108.1%dataset ↗
Apr 202396.0%dataset ↗
Mar 202388.5%dataset ↗
Feb 202397.0%dataset ↗
Jan 2023102.3%dataset ↗
Dec 202289.5%dataset ↗
Nov 202286.1%dataset ↗
Oct 202288.9%dataset ↗
Sep 202295.9%dataset ↗
Aug 2022116.4%dataset ↗
Jul 2022126.1%dataset ↗
Jun 202277.9%dataset ↗
May 202273.5%dataset ↗
Apr 202276.2%dataset ↗
Mar 202284.3%dataset ↗
Feb 2022101.1%dataset ↗
Jan 2022103.8%dataset ↗
Dec 202196.6%dataset ↗
Nov 2021100.0%dataset ↗
Oct 202190.7%dataset ↗
Sep 202187.4%dataset ↗
Aug 202185.9%dataset ↗
Jul 202184.9%dataset ↗
Jun 202170.1%dataset ↗
May 202163.2%dataset ↗
Apr 202157.4%dataset ↗
Mar 202157.6%dataset ↗
Feb 202168.3%dataset ↗
Jan 202183.9%dataset ↗
Dec 202085.3%dataset ↗
Nov 2020100.9%dataset ↗
Oct 2020119.9%dataset ↗
Sep 202083.4%dataset ↗
Aug 202082.7%dataset ↗
Jul 202083.5%dataset ↗
Jun 202081.0%dataset ↗
May 202085.5%dataset ↗
Apr 202052.2%dataset ↗
Mar 202030.0%dataset ↗
Feb 202027.6%dataset ↗
Jan 202029.1%dataset ↗
Dec 201920.5%dataset ↗

Reserves

Better

USD 48.3 bn

Gross international reserves · data as of Aug 2026

20304050’20’21’22’23’24’25’26FernándezMilei
Inherited USD 31.9 bn avg Dec 2022 – Nov 2023
Last 12 mo USD 43.9 bn avg Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Peak USD 48.3 bn Aug 2026
Source BCRA ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) USD 38.9 bn
What else moved it
  • 2023 drought cut farm exports, a key source of reserve inflows.
  • Aug 2021: +USD 4.3bn from international organisations (IMF SDR allocation).
  • Apr 2025: +USD 12.2bn IMF disbursement under the new programme.
Method
Series
BCRA gross international reserves on the last business day of each month, USD bn.
Verdict
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 vs. Dec 2022 – Nov 2023 · Higher is better · Flat if the change is within ±2.0 bn
Source
BCRA
Updates
BCRA, daily with a 2–3 business-day lag; month-end stock available a few days into the next month
Data
PeriodValueSource
Aug 2026USD 48.3 bnrelease ↗
Jul 2026USD 47.6 bndataset ↗
Jun 2026USD 44.9 bndataset ↗
May 2026USD 48.2 bndataset ↗
Apr 2026USD 44.5 bndataset ↗
Mar 2026USD 42.1 bndataset ↗
Feb 2026USD 45.6 bndataset ↗
Jan 2026USD 44.5 bndataset ↗
Dec 2025USD 41.1 bndataset ↗
Nov 2025USD 40.3 bndataset ↗
Oct 2025USD 39.4 bndataset ↗
Sep 2025USD 40.4 bndataset ↗
Aug 2025USD 40.0 bndataset ↗
Jul 2025USD 38.9 bndataset ↗
Jun 2025USD 40.0 bndataset ↗
May 2025USD 36.9 bndataset ↗
Apr 2025USD 38.9 bndataset ↗
Mar 2025USD 25.0 bndataset ↗
Feb 2025USD 28.1 bndataset ↗
Jan 2025USD 28.3 bndataset ↗
Dec 2024USD 29.6 bndataset ↗
Nov 2024USD 30.2 bndataset ↗
Oct 2024USD 28.6 bndataset ↗
Sep 2024USD 27.2 bndataset ↗
Aug 2024USD 26.7 bndataset ↗
Jul 2024USD 26.4 bndataset ↗
Jun 2024USD 29.0 bndataset ↗
May 2024USD 28.7 bndataset ↗
Apr 2024USD 27.6 bndataset ↗
Mar 2024USD 27.1 bndataset ↗
Feb 2024USD 26.7 bndataset ↗
Jan 2024USD 27.6 bndataset ↗
Dec 2023USD 23.1 bndataset ↗
Nov 2023USD 21.5 bndataset ↗
Oct 2023USD 22.6 bndataset ↗
Sep 2023USD 26.9 bndataset ↗
Aug 2023USD 27.8 bndataset ↗
Jul 2023USD 24.1 bndataset ↗
Jun 2023USD 27.9 bndataset ↗
May 2023USD 33.0 bndataset ↗
Apr 2023USD 35.0 bndataset ↗
Mar 2023USD 39.1 bndataset ↗
Feb 2023USD 38.7 bndataset ↗
Jan 2023USD 41.4 bndataset ↗
Dec 2022USD 44.6 bndataset ↗
Nov 2022USD 38.0 bndataset ↗
Oct 2022USD 38.7 bndataset ↗
Sep 2022USD 37.6 bndataset ↗
Aug 2022USD 36.7 bndataset ↗
Jul 2022USD 38.2 bndataset ↗
Jun 2022USD 42.8 bndataset ↗
May 2022USD 41.6 bndataset ↗
Apr 2022USD 42.0 bndataset ↗
Mar 2022USD 43.1 bndataset ↗
Feb 2022USD 37.0 bndataset ↗
Jan 2022USD 37.6 bndataset ↗
Dec 2021USD 39.7 bndataset ↗
Nov 2021USD 41.5 bndataset ↗
Oct 2021USD 42.8 bndataset ↗
Sep 2021USD 42.9 bndataset ↗
Aug 2021USD 46.2 bndataset ↗
Jul 2021USD 42.6 bndataset ↗
Jun 2021USD 42.4 bndataset ↗
May 2021USD 41.9 bndataset ↗
Apr 2021USD 40.3 bndataset ↗
Mar 2021USD 39.6 bndataset ↗
Feb 2021USD 39.5 bndataset ↗
Jan 2021USD 39.5 bndataset ↗
Dec 2020USD 39.4 bndataset ↗
Nov 2020USD 38.7 bndataset ↗
Oct 2020USD 39.9 bndataset ↗
Sep 2020USD 41.4 bndataset ↗
Aug 2020USD 42.8 bndataset ↗
Jul 2020USD 43.4 bndataset ↗
Jun 2020USD 43.2 bndataset ↗
May 2020USD 42.6 bndataset ↗
Apr 2020USD 43.6 bndataset ↗
Mar 2020USD 43.6 bndataset ↗
Feb 2020USD 44.8 bndataset ↗
Jan 2020USD 44.9 bndataset ↗
Dec 2019USD 44.8 bndataset ↗

Real wages & pensions

Worse

96.6

Real registered private-sector wage · data as of Jul 2026

8090100110120’20’21’22’23’24’25’26FernándezMilei
Inherited 102.3 avg Dec 2022 – Nov 2023
Last 12 mo 97.6 avg Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Peak 111.8 Feb 2020
Source INDEC ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 103.8
  • Real minimum pension incl. recurring bonus 90.3
    75100125’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Aug 2026 inherited 111.1 → last 12 mo 91.2 ANSES + INDEC ↗
What else moved it
  • Wages reset through periodic union agreements, so they lag inflation spikes.
  • Pensions are indexed with a lag; inflation spikes erode them before catching up.
Method
Series
INDEC registered private-sector wage index ÷ national CPI (INDEC), rebased Nov 2023 = 100.
Verdict
Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 vs. Dec 2022 – Nov 2023 · Higher is better · Flat if the change is within ±2.0 pts
Source
INDEC
Updates
INDEC wage index ~7-8 weeks after month end (Aug 2026: 21 Oct 2026); CPI ~mid-month; ANSES minimum pension monthly
Data
PeriodValueSource
Jul 202696.6release ↗
Jun 202696.4dataset ↗
May 202696.4dataset ↗
Apr 202696.5dataset ↗
Mar 202695.2dataset ↗
Feb 202696.5dataset ↗
Jan 202697.7dataset ↗
Dec 202598.4dataset ↗
Nov 202598.8dataset ↗
Oct 202599.1dataset ↗
Sep 202599.3dataset ↗
Aug 2025100.0dataset ↗
Jul 202599.7dataset ↗
Jun 202599.4dataset ↗
May 202599.3dataset ↗
Apr 202598.8dataset ↗
Mar 202599.1dataset ↗
Feb 2025100.6dataset ↗
Jan 2025100.7dataset ↗
Dec 2024100.6dataset ↗
Nov 2024100.5dataset ↗
Oct 202499.7dataset ↗
Sep 202498.5dataset ↗
Aug 202498.2dataset ↗
Jul 202497.4dataset ↗
Jun 202495.3dataset ↗
May 202493.4dataset ↗
Apr 202490.4dataset ↗
Mar 202487.9dataset ↗
Feb 202488.7dataset ↗
Jan 202488.0dataset ↗
Dec 202388.5dataset ↗
Nov 2023100.0dataset ↗
Oct 2023102.6dataset ↗
Sep 2023102.2dataset ↗
Aug 2023101.8dataset ↗
Jul 2023105.6dataset ↗
Jun 2023101.4dataset ↗
May 2023101.6dataset ↗
Apr 2023101.3dataset ↗
Mar 2023102.7dataset ↗
Feb 2023102.5dataset ↗
Jan 2023102.3dataset ↗
Dec 2022103.7dataset ↗
Nov 2022104.3dataset ↗
Oct 2022101.9dataset ↗
Sep 2022102.9dataset ↗
Aug 2022103.3dataset ↗
Jul 2022102.1dataset ↗
Jun 2022104.1dataset ↗
May 2022104.3dataset ↗
Apr 2022102.5dataset ↗
Mar 2022102.9dataset ↗
Feb 2022104.2dataset ↗
Jan 2022105.0dataset ↗
Dec 2021104.2dataset ↗
Nov 2021106.7dataset ↗
Oct 2021104.7dataset ↗
Sep 2021104.5dataset ↗
Aug 2021104.5dataset ↗
Jul 2021103.6dataset ↗
Jun 2021101.4dataset ↗
May 2021102.8dataset ↗
Apr 2021102.7dataset ↗
Mar 2021102.0dataset ↗
Feb 2021102.9dataset ↗
Jan 2021101.3dataset ↗
Dec 2020101.3dataset ↗
Nov 2020103.7dataset ↗
Oct 2020104.3dataset ↗
Sep 2020102.7dataset ↗
Aug 2020103.4dataset ↗
Jul 2020104.0dataset ↗
Jun 2020104.7dataset ↗
May 2020106.9dataset ↗
Apr 2020108.8dataset ↗
Mar 2020110.6dataset ↗
Feb 2020111.8dataset ↗
Jan 2020109.0dataset ↗
Dec 2019102.7dataset ↗

Employment

Worse

7.9%

Unemployment rate · data as of Q2 2026

4%6%8%10%12%14%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26FernándezMilei
Inherited 6.3% avg Q4 2022 – Q3 2023
Last 4 qtrs 7.4% avg Q3 2025 – Q2 2026
Peak 13.1% Q2 2020
Source INDEC (EPH) ↗
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 8.5%
  • Registered private-sector employees (SIPA, seasonally adjusted) 96.1
    9095100105’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Jun 2026 inherited 99.8 → last 12 mo 96.9 Labour Secretariat (SIPA) ↗
What else moved it
  • 2020 Q2 peak reflects the COVID-19 lockdown.
  • EPH rates are not seasonally adjusted; compare like quarters across years.
Method
Series
Unemployment rate, INDEC EPH, 31 urban areas, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted.
Verdict
Q3 2025 – Q2 2026 vs. Q4 2022 – Q3 2023 · Lower is better · Flat if the change is within ±0.5 pp
Source
INDEC (EPH)
Updates
INDEC EPH ~11 weeks after quarter end (Q3 2026: 18 Dec 2026); SIPA monthly, ~3-month lag
Data
PeriodValueSource
Q2 20267.9%release ↗
Q1 20267.8%dataset ↗
Q4 20257.5%dataset ↗
Q3 20256.6%dataset ↗
Q2 20257.6%dataset ↗
Q1 20257.9%dataset ↗
Q4 20246.4%dataset ↗
Q3 20246.9%dataset ↗
Q2 20247.6%dataset ↗
Q1 20247.7%dataset ↗
Q4 20235.7%dataset ↗
Q3 20235.7%dataset ↗
Q2 20236.2%dataset ↗
Q1 20236.9%dataset ↗
Q4 20226.3%dataset ↗
Q3 20227.1%dataset ↗
Q2 20226.9%dataset ↗
Q1 20227.0%dataset ↗
Q4 20217.0%dataset ↗
Q3 20218.2%dataset ↗
Q2 20219.6%dataset ↗
Q1 202110.2%dataset ↗
Q4 202011.0%dataset ↗
Q3 202011.7%dataset ↗
Q2 202013.1%dataset ↗
Q1 202010.4%dataset ↗
Q4 20198.9%dataset ↗

Country risk & debt

Better

483 bp

Country risk (EMBI spread) · data as of Aug 2026

01,0002,0003,0004,000’20’21’22’23’24’25’26FernándezMilei
Inherited 2,251 bp avg Dec 2022 – Nov 2023
Last 12 mo 617 bp avg Sep 2025 – Aug 2026
Peak 3,803 bp Apr 2020
Source JP Morgan EMBI ↗ unofficial
Breakdown
  • Fernández-term average (Dec 2019 – Nov 2023) 2,055 bp
  • Gross central-government debt 73.4% of GDP
    0%100%200%’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    as of Q1 2026 inherited 89.3% of GDP → last 4 qtrs 76.5% of GDP Finance Secretariat ↗
What else moved it
  • Spreads fell in Sep 2020 after the private-bondholder debt restructuring.
  • Spreads also track global interest rates and emerging-market risk appetite.
  • Debt ratio uses end-period exchange rate; Dec 2023 devaluation spiked Q4 2023.
Method
Series
Monthly average of the daily JP Morgan EMBI Argentina spread (weekdays), basis points.
Verdict
Sep 2025 – Aug 2026 vs. Dec 2022 – Nov 2023 · Lower is better · Flat if the change is within ±100 bp
Source
JP Morgan EMBI (unofficial, via ArgentinaDatos (riesgo país))
Updates
EMBI: daily (ArgentinaDatos). Debt: Finance Secretariat workbook, end of the following quarter (Q2 2026 due ~30 Sep 2026)
Data
PeriodValueSource
Aug 2026483 bprelease ↗
Jul 2026419 bpdataset ↗
Jun 2026455 bpdataset ↗
May 2026521 bpdataset ↗
Apr 2026562 bpdataset ↗
Mar 2026587 bpdataset ↗
Feb 2026521 bpdataset ↗
Jan 2026550 bpdataset ↗
Dec 2025601 bpdataset ↗
Nov 2025630 bpdataset ↗
Oct 2025989 bpdataset ↗
Sep 20251,091 bpdataset ↗
Aug 2025758 bpdataset ↗
Jul 2025728 bpdataset ↗
Jun 2025688 bpdataset ↗
May 2025684 bpdataset ↗
Apr 2025799 bpdataset ↗
Mar 2025754 bpdataset ↗
Feb 2025698 bpdataset ↗
Jan 2025611 bpdataset ↗
Dec 2024692 bpdataset ↗
Nov 2024805 bpdataset ↗
Oct 20241,101 bpdataset ↗
Sep 20241,380 bpdataset ↗
Aug 20241,530 bpdataset ↗
Jul 20241,536 bpdataset ↗
Jun 20241,455 bpdataset ↗
May 20241,298 bpdataset ↗
Apr 20241,280 bpdataset ↗
Mar 20241,556 bpdataset ↗
Feb 20241,844 bpdataset ↗
Jan 20241,945 bpdataset ↗
Dec 20231,886 bpdataset ↗
Nov 20232,321 bpdataset ↗
Oct 20232,549 bpdataset ↗
Sep 20232,246 bpdataset ↗
Aug 20232,046 bpdataset ↗
Jul 20232,019 bpdataset ↗
Jun 20232,309 bpdataset ↗
May 20232,583 bpdataset ↗
Apr 20232,502 bpdataset ↗
Mar 20232,290 bpdataset ↗
Feb 20231,976 bpdataset ↗
Jan 20231,957 bpdataset ↗
Dec 20222,216 bpdataset ↗
Nov 20222,442 bpdataset ↗
Oct 20222,710 bpdataset ↗
Sep 20222,431 bpdataset ↗
Aug 20222,417 bpdataset ↗
Jul 20222,685 bpdataset ↗
Jun 20222,153 bpdataset ↗
May 20221,883 bpdataset ↗
Apr 20221,726 bpdataset ↗
Mar 20221,809 bpdataset ↗
Feb 20221,762 bpdataset ↗
Jan 20221,840 bpdataset ↗
Dec 20211,730 bpdataset ↗
Nov 20211,765 bpdataset ↗
Oct 20211,635 bpdataset ↗
Sep 20211,541 bpdataset ↗
Aug 20211,567 bpdataset ↗
Jul 20211,596 bpdataset ↗
Jun 20211,514 bpdataset ↗
May 20211,546 bpdataset ↗
Apr 20211,584 bpdataset ↗
Mar 20211,568 bpdataset ↗
Feb 20211,471 bpdataset ↗
Jan 20211,421 bpdataset ↗
Dec 20201,390 bpdataset ↗
Nov 20201,377 bpdataset ↗
Oct 20201,406 bpdataset ↗
Sep 20201,533 bpdataset ↗
Aug 20202,117 bpdataset ↗
Jul 20202,331 bpdataset ↗
Jun 20202,539 bpdataset ↗
May 20202,994 bpdataset ↗
Apr 20203,803 bpdataset ↗
Mar 20203,376 bpdataset ↗
Feb 20202,020 bpdataset ↗
Jan 20201,920 bpdataset ↗
Dec 20192,036 bpdataset ↗

Policy timeline

  1. Javier Milei sworn in as President ↗
  2. Official peso devalued to 800 per dollar ↗ Inflation · Exchange rate · Reserves · Real wages & pensions
  3. Deregulation decree DNU 70/2023 published ↗ Economic activity · Employment
  4. Pensions indexed monthly to CPI (DNU 274/2024) ↗ Real wages & pensions · Fiscal balance
  5. Ley Bases (Law 27,742) published ↗ Fiscal balance · Economic activity · Employment
  6. PAIS tax on dollars and imports expires ↗ Exchange rate · Inflation · Fiscal balance
  7. Crawling peg slowed to 1% per month ↗ Exchange rate · Inflation
  8. IMF approves US$20bn Extended Fund Facility ↗ Reserves · Country risk & debt · Fiscal balance
  9. Peso floats in band; individual FX controls lifted ↗ Exchange rate · Reserves · Inflation
  10. US Treasury US$20bn swap agreement signed ↗ Reserves · Exchange rate · Country risk & debt
  11. FX band indexed to inflation from January ↗ Exchange rate · Reserves
  12. 2026 budget law requires balanced or surplus result ↗ Fiscal balance
  13. Labour Modernisation Law (Law 27,802) published ↗ Employment · Real wages & pensions
  14. IMF completes second review, releasing about US$1bn ↗ Reserves · Country risk & debt